On the myth of baby gender prediction

Oh this drives me nuts on a regular basis!  While there are many old wives tales around this, the one that seems most prevalent here (in NZ) is the how-your-tummy-sits one.



Girl or boy?  Can you tell?

Apparently, if you are carrying low and narrow you can expect a boy, and if you are carrying high and wide, it's a girl.  I've also heard more specifically that if you are carrying a boy it's all in the belly - if it's a girl the weight is more evenly dispersed.

So I thought I'd just explain the actual stats on this one.

50% of the time, prediction by tummy shape/size etc is accurate.  This is as accurate as predicting baby gender by tossing a coin.  So it's not very accurate.

There are many things that affect how a woman's stomach will sit during pregnancy including simple things like:
- the height of the mummy-to-be
- the abdominal muscle tone of the mummy-to-be
- the amount of amniotic fluid surrounding the baby-to-be
- the shape of the mummy-to-be's uterus
- the way the baby-to-be is lying
- the number pregnancy it is (cos usually affected by changes in muscle tone from previous pregnancy).

So yeah.  If you think you can accurately predict what I'm having just by staring rudely at my belly I will not think you the sharpest tool in the shed.

Here are some things that I know for a fact have caused differences between my pregnancies:
- the last one was my first (carried past first trimester) and consequently this one is not.
- the last one was on the back of two abdominal surgeries within 9 months (so totally screwed abs/back)
- the last one was planned... so I was fairly fit and healthy when I got pregnant (good nutrition)*
- this one was not... so I was not in good shape (slightly overweight) and had poor nutrition (anaemic)
- this time I was also breastfeeding up until recently (contributing factor to poor nutrition)
- last time, I was not breastfeeding, so kept all those bonus nutrients to myself!
- last time I was not on medication for anxiety - this time I am
- last time I was on prescribed medication for pain relief (cos of the dicky hips) - this time I'm not
- last time Etta was positioned almost perfectly for most of the pregnancy
- this time this baby is breech (carrying breech babies is uncomfortable!)

And I'm sure there are many other things I've missed.  Basically, pregnancies are different.  For many reasons.

The factors above are far more likely to indicate the differences between my pregnancies.  Not the gender of the baby.

And I own that because this annoys me I should battle these comments without placidly (or not so) saying WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS (we do, we just aren't telling anyone).  So I'm practicing responding to these comments thusly:

Stranger: 'You are carrying a boy.  I can tell'.
Me: 'You are carrying a pie.  I can tell.' or 'Do you have x-ray eyes?' or 'I have a penis?'

Stranger: 'Do you know what you are having?'
Me: 'A baby?' or 'a cheeseburger combo please, upsized' or 'A FUCKING BABY MOTHERFUCKER'.

I suggest if you are one of these people who thinks you can 'know' a babies gender based on their Mama's preggo belly, maybe think up a more creative method of 'knowing' than this old, inaccurate boring one.  Like maybe you toss a rabbit and if it lands on its feet it's a boy, and if it lands on its back it's a girl.

Or maybe you could just toss a coin...

I just need to say to all my whanau and friends who have been asked to guess gender/baby size/date/time because of our family tradition in placing stakes - I am not talking about you guys.  This is a tradition.  I expect you to guess at this stuff.  As long as you don't tell me these as facts based on an arbitrary measure I won't be mad.  I promise.  Our guessing stuff is all in fun.

What I do suggest you do, however, from a winning point of view, is, if you haven't yet placed your bets choose an exponent that is an outlier to what others have chosen ie: if everyone else is guessing 'boy' - guess girl.  If everyone else is guessing a time close to my EDD, choose one WAY before, or WAY later.  If everyone is guessing a weight around what Etta was, pick either tiny wee or GINORMOUS.  The winner of our guessing game last time was a statistician.  Stats don't lie.**

*mentioning this because nutrition is what makes pregnant women crave weird stuff.  Hence almost no cravings last time and ALL the cravings this time.

** Except when they do...