As happens when there's a pandemic, much has changed in the very short time since my last post on coronavirus. My position on this remains unchanged in that people need to remain calm for us to get through this intact. What I want to reiterate in this post is how important it is to pay heed to what is required to flatten the curve and ensure we handle this more like South Korea than Italy.
Why is it important to flatten the curve?
Because if we don't, frankly we'll see many unnecessary deaths.
The reality is that while we have protocols in place for this sort of thing, our hospitals just don't have the capacity to deal with this. In all this craziness you may have forgotten that just last year we saw four times as many folk in Auckland visiting their GP's with flu-like symptoms (of which over 60% of cases were actually the flu). In fact, last year Auckland ran out of flu vaccines. What will happen this year if Covid-19 hits proper? If there is a large, sudden influx into hospitals it will impact on all health care services. So even if you (like me) are at low risk of dying from coronavirus, you may still be affected by the impact that coronavirus has on our health system.
Just because there are only 8 confirmed cases here does not mean we are out of the woods. This is definitely an attitude I've heard from many. Given it's just over two weeks since our first confirmed case, and the virus can present 14 days after contact it's very likely we'll see more soon. And the reality is that most of the countries hit worst are in the Northern Hemisphere. They are just coming out of their Winter. Ours hasn't even started yet. This isn't going to be over for us for quite some time.
And this is something new. Whilst we have seen pandemics since pretty much forever, we haven't seen one like this in my lifetime. Yes, there was the swine flu, but that was undeniably different. The fatality rate for swine flu was 0.02%. The fatality for coronavirus has crept up globally to 3 - 4%*. So while it's not as deadly as measles, it is far more deadly than our last pandemic. And with the world becoming progressively more global it has moved fast. This virus has been confirmed in 140 countries and counting. No-one was aware of coronavirus until the 31st of December 2019. The first death from the illness was recorded in Wuhan on the 11th of January. By the 13th of January, the first case outside of China was reported in Thailand. By the 28th of February here, on the other side of the world, we had our first recorded case in New Zealand. This has spread very, very quickly.
But not all countries have the same fatality rate. In South Korea, the fatality rate on closed cases is 6%. But over in Italy the closed case fatality rate is 44%. That's a huge difference. And the reason for this difference is that South Korea learned from their brush with MERS in 2015, took coronavirus seriously and had a plan in place for pandemics. Italy did not have the infrastructure to deal with so many very sick people at once which is why the death rate leapt so suddenly. Here in New Zealand our government is trying to emulate the plans set by countries like South Korea. So while travel restrictions may be inconvenient, self-isolation daunting and the cancellation of public events a bit of a bummer, it is for good reason. If we can avoid a 44% fatality rate** then surely it's worth it?
How does kindness come into this?
I've heard comments from many that they're not at risk. It's just a flu. It's no biggie. And the thing is that for many of us, it won't be*** But that more than anything puts the onus on us. To keep those less fortunate safe. The elderly, those with compromised immunity and those newly pregnant. This is a scary time for them. Truly. And while many of them will be self-isolating and putting strategies in place to manage, not everyone will be able to. The reality is that regardless of our health, we all need to eat. I work with a number of people who are immune compromised and for most it's just not financially feasible to self-isolate. And I work in an industry that deals with the general public. There will also be many who may not know they are immune compromised; those in poverty who can't afford healthcare, those who are too busy to get things checked out. Or those who are only just pregnant and haven't had a positive test yet. I will be surprised if any one of us does not know at least one other person in this position. These are the people who should be at the forefront of how we choose to handle this.
It's also important to remember this will inadvertently affect those in poverty the most. How can you self-isolate when you live with 11 other people? How can you get tested for covid-19 when you have no car? When you have no money to pay the doctors? How can you keep your sick kids home from school when if you don't go to work there's no money to buy groceries? And how can you keep up to date if you have no internet access? If we are well and able we need to do our best to contain this virus before it hits those with less privilege than us. Because they are the ones who will pay the most for our selfishness and stupidity. And in truth, the ability to travel overseas shows a level of privilege. A level of freedom. And for those stuck in place by circumstance to be effected the worst by this just sucks. Those of us with privilege need to support those with less.
I can't remember who it was, but someone said something along the lines of: 'act as if you have covid-19 rather than as if you are trying to avoid getting it.' This is fantastic advice. If we are sick, we work hard to avoid making others sick (well, most of us do). Given many folk have tested positive that are asymptomatic, you could easily have this virus and not know it. When I was 20 I had Epstein Barr virus with no symptoms for potentially weeks****. And while I wasn't exactly kissing a bunch of people at that time, I'd hate to think how many people I may have given it to just through proximity. There is no harm in acting with caution*****.
While there is no need to go to the lengths some have taken to prepare, it's probably a good idea to have enough food for two weeks in case you do need to self isolate. However, if you don't it won't be the end of the world. Close proximity is 'being within 2 meters of someone for more than 15 minutes'. So if you don't need to self-isolate, shopping is still fine provided you don't chat whilst standing close for more than 15 minutes. Taking the kids to the park is fine with the same addendum. Going to the beach is fine. And if you are self-isolating, having friends, whanau, supermarkets or delivery drivers drop things off to your home is also fine.
A friend (who is a Doctor among many other things) posted this fabulous, simple advice:
Things that work to reduce coronavirus spread:
- Washing hands and cough etiquette
- Social distancing, self isolation
- Looking after each other; especially the vulnerable
- Following official recommendations
This is a great opportunity for positive changes going forward in terms of self reliance and sustainability. A great opportunity to learn and use new greetings. Whilst things are uncertain it's important to focus on the positives. And it's so, so important to think of others, and act with kindness.
* This is not based on closed cases - this includes open cases so may actually be much higher.
** It's also important to remember that deaths caused by a health systems inability to service people with non-coronavirus related issues are not included in these stats.
*** From a health perspective. From a financial and lifestyle perspective, this will likely impact all of us in some way.
**** I had none of the standard symptoms besides extreme exhaustion. I had been to the GP and while they checked my iron and B12, they never thought to test me for EBV. It wasn't until I saw a homeopath who asked me a bunch of questions about my health that I was tested (she worked in conjunction with doctors and wrote a list of tests I should have). Knock homeopathy/naturopathy all you like, but when they work in conjunction with medicine, just the act of actually listening, and asking questions to gain a holistic view can offer insight beyond what a GP on a tight schedule in a busy clinic is able to offer.
***** Unless you're using it as an excuse to hoard resources in which case there is much harm. Panic buying puts unnecessary pressure on everything. It's not helpful to anyone.
****** Not an anti-vaxxer, I just react to a LOT of medications so have some anxiety about having a jab that I know a lot of people have an adverse reaction to.
Thank you Toby Morris
Why is it important to flatten the curve?
Because if we don't, frankly we'll see many unnecessary deaths.
The reality is that while we have protocols in place for this sort of thing, our hospitals just don't have the capacity to deal with this. In all this craziness you may have forgotten that just last year we saw four times as many folk in Auckland visiting their GP's with flu-like symptoms (of which over 60% of cases were actually the flu). In fact, last year Auckland ran out of flu vaccines. What will happen this year if Covid-19 hits proper? If there is a large, sudden influx into hospitals it will impact on all health care services. So even if you (like me) are at low risk of dying from coronavirus, you may still be affected by the impact that coronavirus has on our health system.
Just because there are only 8 confirmed cases here does not mean we are out of the woods. This is definitely an attitude I've heard from many. Given it's just over two weeks since our first confirmed case, and the virus can present 14 days after contact it's very likely we'll see more soon. And the reality is that most of the countries hit worst are in the Northern Hemisphere. They are just coming out of their Winter. Ours hasn't even started yet. This isn't going to be over for us for quite some time.
We were due to head to Australia this week.
While the kids were sad they miss out on Koala Breakfast,
there are more important things at stake.
While the kids were sad they miss out on Koala Breakfast,
there are more important things at stake.
And this is something new. Whilst we have seen pandemics since pretty much forever, we haven't seen one like this in my lifetime. Yes, there was the swine flu, but that was undeniably different. The fatality rate for swine flu was 0.02%. The fatality for coronavirus has crept up globally to 3 - 4%*. So while it's not as deadly as measles, it is far more deadly than our last pandemic. And with the world becoming progressively more global it has moved fast. This virus has been confirmed in 140 countries and counting. No-one was aware of coronavirus until the 31st of December 2019. The first death from the illness was recorded in Wuhan on the 11th of January. By the 13th of January, the first case outside of China was reported in Thailand. By the 28th of February here, on the other side of the world, we had our first recorded case in New Zealand. This has spread very, very quickly.But not all countries have the same fatality rate. In South Korea, the fatality rate on closed cases is 6%. But over in Italy the closed case fatality rate is 44%. That's a huge difference. And the reason for this difference is that South Korea learned from their brush with MERS in 2015, took coronavirus seriously and had a plan in place for pandemics. Italy did not have the infrastructure to deal with so many very sick people at once which is why the death rate leapt so suddenly. Here in New Zealand our government is trying to emulate the plans set by countries like South Korea. So while travel restrictions may be inconvenient, self-isolation daunting and the cancellation of public events a bit of a bummer, it is for good reason. If we can avoid a 44% fatality rate** then surely it's worth it?
How does kindness come into this?
I've heard comments from many that they're not at risk. It's just a flu. It's no biggie. And the thing is that for many of us, it won't be*** But that more than anything puts the onus on us. To keep those less fortunate safe. The elderly, those with compromised immunity and those newly pregnant. This is a scary time for them. Truly. And while many of them will be self-isolating and putting strategies in place to manage, not everyone will be able to. The reality is that regardless of our health, we all need to eat. I work with a number of people who are immune compromised and for most it's just not financially feasible to self-isolate. And I work in an industry that deals with the general public. There will also be many who may not know they are immune compromised; those in poverty who can't afford healthcare, those who are too busy to get things checked out. Or those who are only just pregnant and haven't had a positive test yet. I will be surprised if any one of us does not know at least one other person in this position. These are the people who should be at the forefront of how we choose to handle this.It's also important to remember this will inadvertently affect those in poverty the most. How can you self-isolate when you live with 11 other people? How can you get tested for covid-19 when you have no car? When you have no money to pay the doctors? How can you keep your sick kids home from school when if you don't go to work there's no money to buy groceries? And how can you keep up to date if you have no internet access? If we are well and able we need to do our best to contain this virus before it hits those with less privilege than us. Because they are the ones who will pay the most for our selfishness and stupidity. And in truth, the ability to travel overseas shows a level of privilege. A level of freedom. And for those stuck in place by circumstance to be effected the worst by this just sucks. Those of us with privilege need to support those with less.
I can't remember who it was, but someone said something along the lines of: 'act as if you have covid-19 rather than as if you are trying to avoid getting it.' This is fantastic advice. If we are sick, we work hard to avoid making others sick (well, most of us do). Given many folk have tested positive that are asymptomatic, you could easily have this virus and not know it. When I was 20 I had Epstein Barr virus with no symptoms for potentially weeks****. And while I wasn't exactly kissing a bunch of people at that time, I'd hate to think how many people I may have given it to just through proximity. There is no harm in acting with caution*****.
It's good to have enough basic food for two weeks
While there is no need to go to the lengths some have taken to prepare, it's probably a good idea to have enough food for two weeks in case you do need to self isolate. However, if you don't it won't be the end of the world. Close proximity is 'being within 2 meters of someone for more than 15 minutes'. So if you don't need to self-isolate, shopping is still fine provided you don't chat whilst standing close for more than 15 minutes. Taking the kids to the park is fine with the same addendum. Going to the beach is fine. And if you are self-isolating, having friends, whanau, supermarkets or delivery drivers drop things off to your home is also fine.A friend (who is a Doctor among many other things) posted this fabulous, simple advice:
Things that work to reduce coronavirus spread:
- Washing hands and cough etiquette
- Social distancing, self isolation
- Looking after each other; especially the vulnerable
- Following official recommendations
I'm going to add to that:
-
Try not to touch your face (it's hard! But I'm trying)
-
Try to follow basic health measures to avoid the flu
-
Get the flu injection. If we can cut down on flu cases this should
have a flow on effect to hospitals which will make it easier for them
to handle the impact from coronavirus. Even I'm doing this for the
first time ever this year*****
-
Don't be a selfish git.
* This is not based on closed cases - this includes open cases so may actually be much higher.
** It's also important to remember that deaths caused by a health systems inability to service people with non-coronavirus related issues are not included in these stats.
*** From a health perspective. From a financial and lifestyle perspective, this will likely impact all of us in some way.
**** I had none of the standard symptoms besides extreme exhaustion. I had been to the GP and while they checked my iron and B12, they never thought to test me for EBV. It wasn't until I saw a homeopath who asked me a bunch of questions about my health that I was tested (she worked in conjunction with doctors and wrote a list of tests I should have). Knock homeopathy/naturopathy all you like, but when they work in conjunction with medicine, just the act of actually listening, and asking questions to gain a holistic view can offer insight beyond what a GP on a tight schedule in a busy clinic is able to offer.
***** Unless you're using it as an excuse to hoard resources in which case there is much harm. Panic buying puts unnecessary pressure on everything. It's not helpful to anyone.
****** Not an anti-vaxxer, I just react to a LOT of medications so have some anxiety about having a jab that I know a lot of people have an adverse reaction to.
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